• 2.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.3 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.6
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 61.9/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −0.4 at this ground — averages 2 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.0 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.