• 0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 12.4/game vs a 12.2 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 7: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.