• 1.5 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 82.1/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −0.3 at this ground — averages 1.2 there (13 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.