• 5.8 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 157.2/game vs a 155.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 8.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.