• 0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 0.5
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 14.7/game vs a 12.8 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.