• 3.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.8 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 5 3.8
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 212.8/game vs a 213.6 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.