• 4.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.4 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.5
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 35.4/game vs a 35.7 league average
• +0.5 at this ground — averages 5.3 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.