• 1.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.6 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 1.6
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 60.4/game vs a 56.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.