• 7.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.5 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 7.5
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 219.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.