• 3.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.8 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 8 3.8
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 158.8/game vs a 155.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.