• 5.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.5 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.7
• +0.5 opponent leak — they concede 101.3/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +1.6 at this ground — averages 7.3 there (4 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.