• 0.3 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 11.8/game vs a 12.2 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 0.1 there (10 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.