• 7.3 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• +0.6 opponent leak — they concede 230.1/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 6.8 there (10 gm)
• vs them: averages 6.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 13 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.