• 6.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.3 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.8
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 157.2/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −2.5 at this ground — averages 3.6 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.