• 4.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.8 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.8
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 224.7/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +1.0 at this ground — averages 5.8 there (5 gm)
• wet forecast: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 7.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.