• 3.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.3 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.3
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 201.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• vs them: averages 4.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.