• 4.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.4 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.2
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 94/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.7 at this ground — averages 5 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Opening Round: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.