• 5.6 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 207.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +0.9 at this ground — averages 6.5 there (22 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.