• 4.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.0 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.0
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 35.9/game vs a 35.3 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 4.6 there (10 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.