• 5.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.5 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.5
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 153.7/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 5.2 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.