• 1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.0
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 12.8/game vs a 12.8 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 0.8 there (24 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.