• 2.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.7 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 80.8/game vs a 93.4 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 24: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.