• 1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.8 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.6
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 60.8/game vs a 56.6 league average
• vs them: averages 4.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.