• 0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.3
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 7.7/game vs a 9.4 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.