• 1.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.5 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.1
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 29.9/game vs a 35.3 league average
• vs them: averages 5.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.