• 6.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.5 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.5
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 219.6/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −0.9 at this ground — averages 5.6 there (15 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.