• 1.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.5 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.1
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 51/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.6 at this ground — averages 1.9 there (19 gm)

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.