• 2.2 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 49/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −0.0 at this ground — averages 2.2 there (43 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.