• 2.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.2 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.3
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 60.4/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 2.4 there (11 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.