• 1.4 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 60.4/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.4 at this ground — averages 1.8 there (4 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.