• 3.4 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 158.8/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 3.5 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.