• 4.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.6 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.6
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 141.4/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +0.8 at this ground — averages 5.4 there (12 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 10 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.