• 2.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.7 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.7
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 81.9/game vs a 93.4 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.